We've had a nice helping of NFL action already, but now its time for the main course. I'm already sick of my leftover turkey.
My DFS entries were a mess last week. Injuries and players in supposed good spots left a bitter taste in my mouth. It was the kind of week that I felt really good about, and sometimes that seems to be a dead giveaway that you're about to be in trouble.
I managed to have a good week in NBA cash games and now I have some money back to try again with Week 12. My Thanksgiving GPP failed to cash by about 3 points thanks to Demarco Murray being a total turkey. I didn't take my own stupid advice to play Tony Romo, but the switch to Cam Newton didn't produce as much as I would have hoped.
So you'll have to excuse me if I didn't feel like writing very much this week. Sometimes a lot of losing can crush my soul and make me question everything. I need something to pick me up. I need to rise back into the winning realm.
Week 12 Flames and Fades
QB Fire: Russell Wilson has gradually turned into a nobody in the fantasy world. He's been collectively viewed as a huge disappointment, but a lot of his value was tied to his unsustainable rushing numbers last season. Thomas Rawls on the other hand has been a revelation and is sure to be extreme chalk this week. You know me, I always like those AFC/NFC matchups because the teams are unfamiliar with each other and shootouts can happen. I think since Rawls will be so popular, people will be completely off Wilson. This is one you should be watching.
Other QBs to consider: Eli Manning, Josh McCown, Blake Bortles, Josh McCown, Marcus Mariota.
QB Fade: Everybody who is worth anything is going to tell you to play Brian Hoyer this week. He's in a cake matchup versus the Saints who have been a fantasy dream for opponents these last few weeks. Don't fall into the trap of thinking Hoyer is going to win you a million dollars this week.
While I do think Hoyer can be viewed as a solid cash option, I think too many smart people will be on him in GPPs, especially when people think about positive correlation stacking with DeAndre Hopkins. The thinking is simple. If Hopkins is going to have a huge day, Hoyer will also have a huge day. If Hopkins is major chalk coming off his excavation of Revis Island, Hoyer is going to be pretty highly owned as well.
Other QB Fades: Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, Tyrod Taylor, Jameis Winston, Tom Brady
Tevin Coleman, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Spencer Ware (If Charcandrick West is out), TJ Yeldon, and LeSean McCoy strike me as the best options to consider this week. Buffalo and KC are both liable to try and churn out yards on the ground in a low-scoring affair. Yeldon hasn't scored but once all season, but the Chargers have been very kind to every RB this year and hopefully will continue to be in a giving mood to TJ this Sunday. Tevin Coleman looked pretty crappy last week, but he's going to assume the workload of Devonta Freeman in a spot start, and everyone else will look at Rawls.
Thomas Rawls is certainly looking like a stud, but Pittsburgh is no slouch against the run. If Rawls doesn't put up another huge day, it makes sense to fade him because he's probably going to be Gurley circa Week 10 level owned. Speaking of Gurley, I don't see any reason to pay up for him this week against the Bengals who have looked superb against the run lately. I'm thinking you can pretty much exclusively play value at RB this week as I don't see many good pay-up options on the slate.
Written on my chalk board like Bart Simpson during the Simpsons opening theme: I will not play Mark Ingram I will not play Mark Ingram I will not play Mark Ingram I will not play Mark Ingram I will not play Mark Ingram I will not play Mark Ingram I will not play Mark Ingram I will not play Mark Ingram
So you can pretty much bank on Ingram going off this week since whenever I play him he's terrible.
I'm thinking I could really get away with playing Julio and ODB this week. This week seems like the completely opposite of last week where the high priced WRs are all in perceived good matchups. DeAndre Hopkins will probably be the most popular pay-up since he's coming off a game in which he roasted Revis, so I think there could be serious merit to looking at pivoting to ODB and Julio. If Delvin Breaux does manage to neutralize Nuk, then Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington both offer upside as one of them is going to be facing the flammable Brandon Browner.
Then when I look closer, I see Larry Fitzgerald with a similar ceiling and floor to ODB with a $1300 discount. Antonio Brown is also intriguing as some people will be off him due to his perceived bad matchup vs Richard Sherman.
I'm not going to go contrarian as much anymore. I'm trying to build a high floor lineup. Give me some Julio Jones, even in GPPs where he's going to be ridiculously low owned. Harrison Smith is OUT for the Vikings and Hankerson won't play either. FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PLAY JULIO JONES!
Finally, I really like Travis Benjamin on Monday Night with Josh McCown back as the starter.
I think you can find a lot of great plays at TE this week. I like Heath Miller a lot, but I also think you can do well with Delanie Walker as a safe floor. Also look for Barnidge and Jacob Tamme.
Defense is usually somewhere between $2000 in difference between higher ceiling and low ceiling. That is about all you get with D. You're trying to find a touchdown. I think you can feel good about paying up for the Cardinals or Bengals this week, but you could also pay down for the Colts or Giants.
Model Cash DK Lineup
Here's hoping luck changes this time.