NFL Week 9 QBs: Lineup Construction and The Process of Elimination

I'm not a very decisive person in general. It usually takes me quite a while just to figure out where I want to eat on Saturday Night. I like to consider options and analyze each potential decision carefully. This can be useful and tedious at the same time. Some folks will simply make a decision and live with it. I need to understand all the choices before I dive in. You can imagine how hard it was for me to figure out what to name my firstborn son. Eventually, I found that with all my decision making, there is only one tried-and-true method: process of elimination. I found every name for a boy I could and created a list. I removed every name I didn't like until I had narrowed it down to 20-30 possible names. From there, it was much easier to decide among 20-30 names I didn't hate.

In DFS, process of elimination is also my preferred method. Narrowing down the field is my first step when it comes to lineup building. If I'm doing a cash game, I'm looking for solid production, low floor, reasonable price. For GPPs, I'm looking for a cheap play with a high ceiling potential.

Process of elimination in DFS seems simple at first. Then you start throwing around game theory and contrarian viewpoints.Should I play Blaine Gabbert? No. Just no.

Using my own process of elimination and setting my own projections for the week. I have eliminated my QBs down to the following 8 in consideration. I will list them along with their salaries on Draft Kings, and their expected point output per dollar.

Week 9 QBs:

QB Opponent DK Salary Pt/$
Jay Cutler @SD $5200 3.7
Tyrod Taylor vs MIA $5300 3.6
Jameis Winston vs NYG $5200 3.6
Aaron Rodgers @CAR $7400 3.3
Derek Carr @PIT $5500 3.2
Blake Bortles @NYJ $5400 3.1
Phillip Rivers vs CHI $6900 3.0
Matt Ryan @SF $7100 2.9

You will notice that I like the cheap QBs this week. Cutler, Taylor, Winston, Carr, and Bortles I believe are all still priced low relative to what their output should look like. For paying up a bit, I still can't really ignore Rivers but I wonder how much the absence of Keenan Allen and a gimpy Gates will limit his potential. Still, San Diego's pace and reliance on the pass are hard to ignore on a weekly basis. Matt Ryan is the type of QB who fails to live up to expectations far too often, but if he's got to at least put up some good numbers against the San Francisco trainwreck, right?

Tyrod Taylor and Jameis Winston are a couple of guys who you could put up in GPPs. A Winston/Evans stack may pay off this week against a horrid Giants defense. I think Derek Carr has similar upside to Big Ben in the Raiders/Steelers game, especially if the Raiders get down early and have to throw more. With Carr coming in $1100 cheaper, I think you can go there and not be too far off from Ben's numbers.

Blake Bortles is likely not going to get big consideration from a lot of people due to the matchup, but $5400 just seems so low for a guy who has put up points most of the season. Even with Revis Island, he's got another Allen to look for. Let's consider that Jeremy Langford is probably going to be highly owned against the porous San Diego defense. Doesn't it make sense to look at Cutler who is only $5200? He's got great chemistry with Alshon Jeffery going on right now. Food for thought.

Finally my contrarian special this week is none other than Aaron Rodgers. After A-Rodge looked shockingly human against Denver last week, he now faces another tough test on the road against a Carolina defense led by #1 CB Josh Norman. Consider the downward trend that will make him low-owned this week. $7400 for Aaron Rodgers is pretty tempting. Carolina doesn't make life easy for QBs and WRs. But you have to think the Pack are at least going to put up a fight this time.

Stay thirsty my friends.

-- DF

Derek Finley

Existing in a world of psychotic monkeys. Writing about sports for passion. Thirsting for knowledge and beer.